Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.51 – 158.6

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404 ±11.2

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 116.83Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 1.48Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 10.2Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.9 ±11.6

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX -2Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 101.76Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 58.84Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8119, 11096, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8119, 11096, 2404

Auto

21.1 17%

Teleop

82.2 67%

Endgame

20.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6060, 696, 9706

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 696, 9706

Auto

52.0 33%

Teleop

59.9 38%

Endgame

47.2 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.5pts

Blue projected score158.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.1
Score range: 97–191
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404Season APEX262.9

21.1Auto52

82.2Teleop59.9

20.2Endgame47.2

34Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	35
teleop	19	61
endgame	51	22
foul	0	0
total	89	118

Result

Final score

89 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 40.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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