Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.47 – 228.32

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.5 ±12.7

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 53.81Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 5.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 38.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.2 ±10.5

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 33.35Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 63.93Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 131.04Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1452, 6060, 3341

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1452, 6060, 3341

Auto

37.0 44%

Teleop

36.6 43%

Endgame

10.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7607, 1515, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 1515, 8119

Auto

36.2 16%

Teleop

140.1 60%

Endgame

57.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.5pts

Blue projected score228.3pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -130.8
Score range: 65–260
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 180.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.5Season APEX377.2

37Auto36.2

36.6Teleop140.1

10.9Endgame57

55Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	35
teleop	13	115
endgame	32	20
foul	0	0
total	70	170

Result

Final score

70 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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