Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.64 – 103.36

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.7 ±11.7

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 32.85Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 46.89Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 93.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.8 ±14.4

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 38.85Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 73.06Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -8.55Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2543, 4419, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2543, 4419, 696

Auto

42.7 25%

Teleop

71.4 42%

Endgame

54.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 9706, 9471

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3749, 9706, 9471

Auto

27.7 25%

Teleop

62.0 57%

Endgame

19.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.6pts

Blue projected score103.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.3
Score range: 70–207
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 182.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.7Season APEX168.8

42.7Auto27.7

71.4Teleop62

54.9Endgame19.6

65Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	13
teleop	73	23
endgame	57	5
foul	0	0
total	199	41

Result

Final score

199 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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