Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

300.13 – 301.16

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

285 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 10 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.2 ±9.3

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 16.24Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 151.01Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 132.88Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644.5 ±9.8

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 81.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 36.34Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 182.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2404, 687, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2404, 687, 294

Auto

70.7 24%

Teleop

188.6 63%

Endgame

41.4 14%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4738, 589, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 589, 2073

Auto

38.0 13%

Teleop

168.6 57%

Endgame

91.3 31%

Strengths

· 2073 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score300.1pts

Blue projected score301.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1
Score range: 268–333
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 178.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.2Season APEX644.5

70.7Auto38

188.6Teleop168.6

41.4Endgame91.3

46Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	15
teleop	208	162
endgame	39	114
foul	0	15
total	285	306

Result

Final score

285 – 306

Prediction correct · off by 10 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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