Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.64 – 107.13

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±12.4

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 11.07Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 14.48Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 150.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.1 ±12.2

691Project 691 Robotics

Season APEX 46.3Event APEX 17.92Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 54.57Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1452Omnicats

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 34.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11096, 3341, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11096, 3341, 687

Auto

45.3 26%

Teleop

93.3 54%

Endgame

34.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 691, 4419, 1452

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 691, 4419, 1452

Auto

27.2 25%

Teleop

52.3 49%

Endgame

27.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.6pts

Blue projected score107.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.5
Score range: 72–211
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 195.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360Season APEX191.1

45.3Auto27.2

93.3Teleop52.3

34.6Endgame27.5

41Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	24
teleop	110	49
endgame	11	25
foul	0	0
total	161	98

Result

Final score

161 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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