Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.22 – 146.08

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.3 ±12.7

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 10.21Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 36.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX -7.78Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.2 ±13.3

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 98.28Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 12.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 35.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6060, 8768, 2839

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6060, 8768, 2839

Auto

15.1 38%

Teleop

21.7 54%

Endgame

3.4 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 980, 11096, 6658

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 980, 11096, 6658

Auto

36.2 27%

Teleop

78.5 59%

Endgame

19.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.2pts

Blue projected score146.1pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.9
Score range: 6–179
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 182.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.3Season APEX226.2

15.1Auto36.2

21.7Teleop78.5

3.4Endgame19.2

62Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	13	10
endgame	19	9
foul	0	30
total	54	75

Result

Final score

54 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 42.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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