Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

188.69 – 252.66

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

261 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.1 ±10.5

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 79.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 103.65Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 5.17Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.5 ±10.5

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 76.59Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 129.16Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 46.91Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 2659, 5012

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 2659, 5012

Auto

39.6 21%

Teleop

94.9 51%

Endgame

53.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9706, 294, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 294, 4419

Auto

44.0 18%

Teleop

148.0 59%

Endgame

58.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.7pts

Blue projected score252.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64
Score range: 157–285
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 175.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.1Season APEX436.5

39.6Auto44

94.9Teleop148

53.3Endgame58.6

60Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	66
teleop	99	132
endgame	67	75
foul	0	0
total	261	273

Result

Final score

261 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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