Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

259.34 – 248.44

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±11.6

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 116.12Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 62.22Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 81Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 473.2 ±11.2

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 189.51Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 13.55Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 45.38Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 980, 3749, 1515

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 980, 3749, 1515

Auto

44.7 17%

Teleop

140.7 55%

Endgame

72.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2073, 2404, 5869

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2073, 2404, 5869

Auto

44.2 18%

Teleop

144.1 58%

Endgame

61.2 25%

Strengths

· 2073 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score259.3pts

Blue projected score248.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.9
Score range: 217–290
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 173.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.3Season APEX473.2

44.7Auto44.2

140.7Teleop144.1

72.7Endgame61.2

100Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	41
teleop	107	137
endgame	20	94
foul	0	0
total	167	272

Result

Final score

167 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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