Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.74 – 172.94

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 699.5 ±9.3

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 27.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 180.55Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 94.32Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.9 ±12.2

1622Team Spyder

Season APEX 65.3Event APEX 79.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

980ThunderBots

Season APEX 106.5Event APEX 104.58Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX -11.3Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 2073, 8119

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 2073, 8119

Auto

47.8 16%

Teleop

177.6 59%

Endgame

77.3 26%

Strengths

· 2073 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1622, 980, 2543

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1622, 980, 2543

Auto

53.3 32%

Teleop

63.3 38%

Endgame

49.0 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.7pts

Blue projected score172.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.8
Score range: 143–333
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 687 vs event baseline 168.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

699.5Season APEX247.9

47.8Auto53.3

177.6Teleop63.3

77.3Endgame49

149Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	38
teleop	292	105
endgame	105	64
foul	0	10
total	470	217

Result

Final score

470 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 105.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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