Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.48 – 52.87

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 121.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.1 ±11.7

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 18.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 75.29Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX -35.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±14.5

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX -50.12Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 41.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 61.91Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4419, 4738, 11096

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4419, 4738, 11096

Auto

-2.0 0%

Teleop

14.2 27%

Endgame

39.9 77%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9471, 5869, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9471, 5869, 2637

Auto

13.8 25%

Teleop

32.1 59%

Endgame

8.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.5pts

Blue projected score52.9pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 22–89
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 174.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.1Season APEX318.2

-2Auto13.8

14.2Teleop32.1

39.9Endgame8.7

123Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	36
teleop	112	75
endgame	53	43
foul	0	0
total	200	154

Result

Final score

200 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 121.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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