Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.69 – 104.52

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

458 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 168.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 606.4 ±10.7

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 18.64Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 47.85Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 99.2Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.9 ±12.1

5012Gryffingear

Season APEX 103.2Event APEX 3.02Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 68.1Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 33.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3863, 2659, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3863, 2659, 687

Auto

35.3 23%

Teleop

82.1 54%

Endgame

35.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5012, 1515, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5012, 1515, 8768

Auto

20.8 19%

Teleop

49.4 44%

Endgame

41.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.7pts

Blue projected score104.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.2
Score range: 75–196
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 167.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

606.4Season APEX227.9

35.3Auto20.8

82.1Teleop49.4

35.9Endgame41.1

49Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	24
teleop	319	71
endgame	59	55
foul	0	0
total	458	150

Result

Final score

458 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 168.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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