Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.57 – 168.35

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 63 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.1 ±12.4

3341Option 16

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 48.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6658Rockbotics

Season APEX 51.8Event APEX 6.16Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 14.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.6 ±10.4

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 19.73Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 79.8Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 68.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3341, 6658, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3341, 6658, 2637

Auto

8.3 12%

Teleop

39.8 58%

Endgame

21.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 4738, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3749, 4738, 696

Auto

38.9 23%

Teleop

103.1 61%

Endgame

27.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.6pts

Blue projected score168.4pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.8
Score range: 40–198
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 165.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.1Season APEX378.6

8.3Auto38.9

39.8Teleop103.1

21Endgame27.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	26
teleop	64	91
endgame	33	70
foul	35	5
total	172	192

Result

Final score

172 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 63 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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