Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.68 – 187.09

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 94.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.6 ±14.5

9471EF Academy

Season APEX 31.9Event APEX 6.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2839Daedalus

Season APEX 27.9Event APEX 50.41Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 53.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.1 ±13.3

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 30.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 78.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5869QHHS Aqueducks

Season APEX 61.5Event APEX 77.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9471, 2839, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9471, 2839, 2659

Auto

17.2 16%

Teleop

75.7 71%

Endgame

13.0 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11096, 8768, 5869

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11096, 8768, 5869

Auto

35.7 19%

Teleop

99.1 53%

Endgame

53.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.7pts

Blue projected score187.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.4
Score range: 80–218
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 172.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.6Season APEX194.1

17.2Auto35.7

75.7Teleop99.1

13Endgame53.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	44	6
endgame	12	7
foul	0	0
total	79	29

Result

Final score

79 – 29

Prediction missed · off by 94.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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