Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.32 – 162.13

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

248 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 302.3 ±11.1

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 43.5Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 92.84Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

846The Funky Monkeys

Season APEX 196.2Event APEX 45.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.7 ±10.7

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 45.2Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 85.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9615Redlands Robotics

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 31.25Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1515, 9706, 846

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1515, 9706, 846

Auto

26.6 15%

Teleop

113.4 63%

Endgame

39.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 8119, 9615

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 8119, 9615

Auto

23.0 15%

Teleop

99.1 63%

Endgame

36.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.3pts

Blue projected score162.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.2
Score range: 133–211
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 592 vs event baseline 161.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

302.3Season APEX531.7

26.6Auto23

113.4Teleop99.1

39.5Endgame36.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	72
teleop	127	201
endgame	77	71
foul	0	0
total	248	344

Result

Final score

248 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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