Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.45 – 152.43

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 61 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 311.3 ±11.7

7607The Blackbirds

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 4.46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7419TECH Support

Season APEX 165.6Event APEX 76.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11096Δt

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 46Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.6 ±11.7

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 59.78Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2543TitanBot

Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 76.99Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 15.66Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7607, 7419, 11096

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7607, 7419, 11096

Auto

25.1 20%

Teleop

74.7 59%

Endgame

27.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 2543, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3749, 2543, 2404

Auto

27.7 18%

Teleop

90.6 59%

Endgame

34.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.5pts

Blue projected score152.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25
Score range: 97–182
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 164.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

311.3Season APEX263.6

25.1Auto27.7

74.7Teleop90.6

27.4Endgame34.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	25
teleop	86	31
endgame	35	8
foul	0	0
total	161	64

Result

Final score

161 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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