Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.56 – 237.11

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±12.2

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 88.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3863Pantherbotics

Season APEX 80Event APEX 64.79Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

399Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 51.55Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.2 ±10.5

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 94.15Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 120.85Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6060Circuit Serpents

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 22.11Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 3863, 399

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 696, 3863, 399

Auto

35.6 17%

Teleop

111.4 54%

Endgame

58.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4738, 2659, 6060

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4738, 2659, 6060

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

115.9 50%

Endgame

72.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.6pts

Blue projected score237.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.6
Score range: 170–272
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 195.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.8Season APEX513.2

35.6Auto43.3

111.4Teleop115.9

58.1Endgame72.7

21Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	48
teleop	119	108
endgame	47	50
foul	0	10
total	183	216

Result

Final score

183 – 216

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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