Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344.45 – 295.59

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

265 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 602.6 ±9.9

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 152.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1515MorTorq

Season APEX 60Event APEX 37.78Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2073EagleForce

A+

Season APEX 315Event APEX 153.75Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635.8 ±9.9

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 7.88Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 166.49Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 121.22Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 687, 1515, 2073

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 687, 1515, 2073

Auto

68.0 20%

Teleop

201.0 60%

Endgame

67.3 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9706, 294, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 294, 2659

Auto

52.7 18%

Teleop

163.1 56%

Endgame

77.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score344.5pts

Blue projected score295.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: 261–379
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 194.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

602.6Season APEX635.8

68Auto52.7

201Teleop163.1

67.3Endgame77.3

8Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	40
teleop	103	126
endgame	78	97
foul	5	15
total	265	278

Result

Final score

265 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

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