FIRST Alberta Canadian Rockies Open @ KDays

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.18 – 54.09

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 1

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9986Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9985Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 18.3 ±56.9

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 3.6Rank 9Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9998Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 39.97Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9999Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.47Rank 17Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9986, 9987, 9985

/ 100 compat

Projected

0 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9986, 9987, 9985

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 9998, 9999

/ 100 compat

Projected

50 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9438, 9998, 9999

Auto

17.5 38%

Teleop

7.5 16%

Endgame

20.6 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score0pts

Blue projected score50pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample90alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 13%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.9
Score range: 36–67
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-09-04
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 71.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX18.3

0Auto17.5

0Teleop7.5

0Endgame20.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	0	0
foul	0	0
total	0	1

Result

Final score

0 – 1

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts