FIRST Alberta Canadian Rockies Open @ KDays

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.4 – 42.61

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 77.3 ±56.9

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 77.3Event APEX 29.93Rank 14Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 42.45Rank 5Record 6-3-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

9977Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 37.35Rank 13Record 4-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 2.3 ±57.8

9990Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 16.08Rank 15Record 3-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

11302Hot Rods

Provisional

Season APEX 2.3Event APEX 20.51Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9980Offseason demo team

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0.57Rank 10Record 5-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9449, 9994, 9977

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9449, 9994, 9977

Auto

10.4 10%

Teleop

58.6 56%

Endgame

35.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9990, 11302, 9980

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.2 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9990, 11302, 9980

Auto

7.4 20%

Teleop

22.9 61%

Endgame

7.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.67 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score109.7pts

Blue projected score37.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample90alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.8
Score range: 30–113
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-09-04
Model: apex-0.5.1

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 233 vs event baseline 70.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

77.3Season APEX2.3

10.4Auto7.4

58.6Teleop22.9

35.1Endgame7

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	6
teleop	135	22
endgame	54	7
foul	0	0
total	198	35

Result

Final score

198 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Match videos

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