Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.91 – 225.85

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

164 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±13.3

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 37.27Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 31.66Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 69.98Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±12.7

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 103.28Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 54.45Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 68.12Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9200, 9461, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9461, 9169

Auto

33.8 25%

Teleop

71.1 52%

Endgame

33.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9484, 9458, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 9458, 7567

Auto

36.9 17%

Teleop

108.9 50%

Endgame

74.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.9pts

Blue projected score225.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.9
Score range: 116–249
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 128.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX400.4

33.8Auto36.9

71.1Teleop108.9

33Endgame74

39Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	57
teleop	83	107
endgame	54	68
foul	0	0
total	164	232

Result

Final score

164 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 15.6 pts

Match videos

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