Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.21 – 122.96

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±15.3

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 42.35Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 83.81Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 31.05Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±16.3

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX -1.45Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 29.36Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 95.05Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9460, 9110, 9168

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 9110, 9168

Auto

42.6 28%

Teleop

74.2 48%

Endgame

37.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9219, 10466, 9085

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9219, 10466, 9085

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

69.1 55%

Endgame

36.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.3
Score range: 100–180
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 126.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.6Season APEX218.2

42.6Auto19.6

74.2Teleop69.1

37.6Endgame36.5

5Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	29
teleop	98	48
endgame	36	40
foul	0	0
total	166	117

Result

Final score

166 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 7.4 pts

Match videos

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