Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.78 – 140.31

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±12.7

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 104.83Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.49Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 70.46Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244 ±15.8

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 27.35Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 41.52Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 71.44Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9484, 9458, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.8 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 9458, 7567

Auto

40.5 18%

Teleop

111.6 50%

Endgame

70.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10190, 9199, 1860

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10190, 9199, 1860

Auto

33.1 24%

Teleop

79.0 58%

Endgame

24.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score230.8pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.5
Score range: 117–254
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 125.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.4Season APEX244

40.5Auto33.1

111.6Teleop79

70.8Endgame24.9

29Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	41
teleop	105	92
endgame	87	66
foul	0	0
total	221	199

Result

Final score

221 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Match videos

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