Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
224.18 – 128.58
77%23%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
150 – 172
Prediction missed · off by 58.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±11.7
Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 10.73Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 121.32Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 92.13Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±13.3
Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 35.61Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 26.53Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 66.44Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9611, 9175, 7565
81
/ 100 compatProjected
224.2 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 9611, 9175, 7565
Auto
42.0 19%
Teleop
132.3 60%
Endgame
47.1 21%
Strengths
- · 9175 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9200, 9461, 9169
64
/ 100 compatProjected
128.6 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 9200, 9461, 9169
Auto
36.8 29%
Teleop
64.9 51%
Endgame
25.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score224.2pts
Blue projected score128.6pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample194alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 95.6
- Score range
- 107–246
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
409Season APEX298.4
42Auto36.8
132.3Teleop64.9
47.1Endgame25.8
27Consistency38
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 23 |
| teleop | 100 | 90 |
| endgame | 13 | 59 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 150 | 172 |
Result
Final score
150 – 172
Prediction missed · off by 58.8 pts
Match videos
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