Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

303.75 – 157

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 726.4 ±11.2

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 94.77Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 10.2Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 198.78Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±15.3

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 42.13Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 84.22Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 30.65Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7563, 1884, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 1884, 1156

Auto

57.8 19%

Teleop

175.3 58%

Endgame

69.5 23%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9460, 9110, 9168

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 9110, 9168

Auto

39.1 25%

Teleop

78.4 51%

Endgame

35.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score303.8pts

Blue projected score157pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.8
Score range: 135–326
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 123.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

726.4Season APEX257.6

57.8Auto39.1

175.3Teleop78.4

69.5Endgame35.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	49
teleop	200	62
endgame	80	43
foul	5	0
total	319	154

Result

Final score

319 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Match videos

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