Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.47 – 208.79

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±12.7

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 105.13Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.24Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 71.1Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±11.7

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 6.75Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 85.74Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 116.3Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9484, 9458, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9484, 9458, 7567

Auto

42.5 19%

Teleop

113.3 50%

Endgame

72.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9611, 7565, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9611, 7565, 9175

Auto

41.1 20%

Teleop

122.2 61%

Endgame

38.3 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.5pts

Blue projected score208.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 185–255
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.4Season APEX409

42.5Auto41.1

113.3Teleop122.2

72Endgame38.3

30Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	41
teleop	76	100
endgame	30	46
foul	0	0
total	157	187

Result

Final score

157 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 48.1 pts

Match videos

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