Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.18 – 235.09

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±13.3

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 37.46Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 33.76Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 70.96Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.2 ±13.1

9604TUIUTECH

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 25.63Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 89.78Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 119.68Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9200, 9461, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9461, 9169

Auto

32.8 23%

Teleop

70.8 50%

Endgame

36.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9604, 7565, 9175

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9604, 7565, 9175

Auto

39.0 17%

Teleop

138.3 60%

Endgame

53.3 23%

Strengths

· 9175 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.2pts

Blue projected score235.1pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.9
Score range: 118–259
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX423.2

32.8Auto39

70.8Teleop138.3

36.9Endgame53.3

46Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	42	85
endgame	10	11
foul	35	30
total	111	160

Result

Final score

111 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 pts

Match videos

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