Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.7 – 155.85

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±13.3

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 39.72Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 32.31Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 71.67Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.6 ±15.3

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 40.6Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 83.69Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 31.56Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9200, 9461, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9461, 9169

Auto

32.0 22%

Teleop

73.4 51%

Endgame

37.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9460, 9110, 9168

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9460, 9110, 9168

Auto

39.7 26%

Teleop

77.6 50%

Endgame

36.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143.7pts

Blue projected score155.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 121–179
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.4Season APEX257.6

32Auto39.7

73.4Teleop77.6

37.3Endgame36.5

40Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	27
teleop	62	48
endgame	35	1
foul	5	0
total	140	76

Result

Final score

140 – 76

Prediction missed · off by 41.8 pts

Match videos

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