Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.24 – 26.2

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.6 ±18.6

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 22.18Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 38.35Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 29.71Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.6 ±16.8

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 24.53Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 2.53Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -0.86Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9486, 11201, 10190

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9486, 11201, 10190

Auto

24.5 30%

Teleop

40.3 49%

Endgame

17.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10466, 9459, 9485

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10466, 9459, 9485

Auto

16.5 60%

Teleop

-4.8 0%

Endgame

15.6 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score26.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64
Score range: 4–112
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 122.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.6Season APEX185.6

24.5Auto16.5

40.3Teleop-4.8

17.7Endgame15.6

60Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	12
teleop	28	33
endgame	20	24
foul	0	0
total	63	69

Result

Final score

63 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 35 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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