Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.25 – 165.58

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.7 ±17.7

1772The Brazilian Trail Blazers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 39.61Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 29.2Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 191.44Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±16.5

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 0.31Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 80.44Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 84.83Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1772, 9657, 1156

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1772, 9657, 1156

Auto

42.8 17%

Teleop

140.0 54%

Endgame

74.3 29%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11188, 9110, 9047

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11188, 9110, 9047

Auto

42.8 27%

Teleop

79.4 49%

Endgame

39.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.3pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.7
Score range: 144–282
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 569 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.7Season APEX246.5

42.8Auto42.8

140Teleop79.4

74.3Endgame39.2

23Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	40
teleop	174	108
endgame	117	65
foul	5	5
total	351	218

Result

Final score

351 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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