Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.57 – 143.97

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±16.5

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 44.15Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 31.07Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 29.35Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±12.9

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 88.94Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 30.35Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 24.68Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 9461, 10019

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 9461, 10019

Auto

21.0 20%

Teleop

67.9 64%

Endgame

18.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7563, 9200, 10345

/ 100 compat

Projected

144 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7563, 9200, 10345

Auto

41.1 29%

Teleop

74.3 52%

Endgame

27.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score104.6pts

Blue projected score144pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 83–166
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 313 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.7Season APEX394.3

21Auto41.1

67.9Teleop74.3

18Endgame27.1

47Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	44
teleop	43	127
endgame	17	49
foul	10	5
total	88	225

Result

Final score

88 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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