Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.45 – 39.8

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±13.5

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 4.48Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 62.67Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 96.3Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.8 ±17

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -2.48Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 19.05Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 23.23Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9593, 9162, 7565

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9593, 9162, 7565

Auto

33.3 21%

Teleop

94.2 59%

Endgame

32.9 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6404, 9603, 7033

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6404, 9603, 7033

Auto

12.9 40%

Teleop

11.3 35%

Endgame

8.3 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score163.5pts

Blue projected score39.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.7
Score range: 18–185
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 120.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.8Season APEX179.8

33.3Auto12.9

94.2Teleop11.3

32.9Endgame8.3

19Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	18
teleop	87	22
endgame	26	35
foul	5	20
total	144	95

Result

Final score

144 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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