Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.9 – 188.44

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 30.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.8 ±14.7

9604TUIUTECH

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 23.08Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX 114.58Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8882INFINITY BR

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 20.24Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.6 ±15.3

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 33.9Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 43.72Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 110.82Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9604, 9175, 8882

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9604, 9175, 8882

Auto

21.1 13%

Teleop

94.9 59%

Endgame

45.7 28%

Strengths

· 9175 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10466, 9199, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10466, 9199, 9484

Auto

26.1 14%

Teleop

119.7 64%

Endgame

41.3 22%

Strengths

· 9484 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.9pts

Blue projected score188.4pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.5
Score range: 136–210
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 120.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.8Season APEX302.6

21.1Auto26.1

94.9Teleop119.7

45.7Endgame41.3

53Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	88	46
endgame	30	77
foul	15	0
total	150	136

Result

Final score

150 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 30.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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