Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.43 – 71.45

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.8 ±15.6

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 17.95Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 77.89Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 45.59Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±20.8

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX 2.42Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 40.22Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 28.81Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10019, 7563, 9169

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10019, 7563, 9169

Auto

49.2 35%

Teleop

69.2 49%

Endgame

22.5 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11188, 11201, 10343

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11188, 11201, 10343

Auto

18.3 30%

Teleop

28.8 47%

Endgame

13.8 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.4pts

Blue projected score71.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70
Score range: 49–163
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.8Season APEX139.5

49.2Auto18.3

69.2Teleop28.8

22.5Endgame13.8

48Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	21
teleop	163	19
endgame	37	27
foul	0	0
total	254	67

Result

Final score

254 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 58.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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