Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.15 – 50.97

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±16

9110SESI SENAI ATOMIIC

Season APEX 103Event APEX 86.2Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 33.64Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7567SESI SENAI OCTOPUS

Season APEX 155.6Event APEX 82.31Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.9 ±15

11105GC 4 Tomorrow

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 12.82Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 29.35Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX 8.8Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9110, 9657, 7567

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9110, 9657, 7567

Auto

42.1 22%

Teleop

98.6 51%

Endgame

52.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11105, 9486, 9611

/ 100 compat

Projected

51 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11105, 9486, 9611

Auto

23.3 45%

Teleop

15.2 29%

Endgame

13.5 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.2pts

Blue projected score51pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 151.2
Score range: 29–224
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.6Season APEX154.9

42.1Auto23.3

98.6Teleop15.2

52.3Endgame13.5

24Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	75	10
endgame	42	20
foul	5	0
total	151	44

Result

Final score

151 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 29.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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