Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.14 – 80.43

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.4 ±16.3

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 40.57Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9168AGROBOT

Season APEX 85.1Event APEX 24.75Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX -6.18Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.2 ±19.6

10298LUVER CONTROL

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 34.09Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 15.06Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 31.28Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5800, 9168, 6404

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5800, 9168, 6404

Auto

17.4 29%

Teleop

34.1 56%

Endgame

9.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10298, 9603, 10190

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10298, 9603, 10190

Auto

15.7 22%

Teleop

36.7 52%

Endgame

17.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.1pts

Blue projected score80.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.3
Score range: 37–102
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.4Season APEX215.2

17.4Auto15.7

34.1Teleop36.7

9.5Endgame17.6

61Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	34
teleop	38	61
endgame	19	10
foul	0	5
total	83	110

Result

Final score

83 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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