Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

50.13 – 50.13

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 83.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.5 ±18.1

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10298LUVER CONTROL

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX -Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX -Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±14.9

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX -Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9175BrainMachine-FRC

Season APEX 171.2Event APEX -Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX -Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11188, 10298, 5800

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11188, 10298, 5800

Auto

15.0 30%

Teleop

25.1 50%

Endgame

10.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9461, 9175, 10466

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9461, 9175, 10466

Auto

15.0 30%

Teleop

25.1 50%

Endgame

10.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score50.1pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 32–68
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 100.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.5Season APEX312.3

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	25
teleop	35	123
endgame	30	39
foul	0	0
total	81	187

Result

Final score

81 – 187

Prediction missed · off by 83.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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