Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

119.28 – 54.7

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±15

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 88.23Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 25.26Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 5.79Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.3 ±18.8

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 61.41Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX 2.01Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6902STRIKE

Provisional

Season APEX 27.7Event APEX -8.72Rank 48Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9047, 10345, 9593

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9047, 10345, 9593

Auto

23.4 20%

Teleop

75.3 63%

Endgame

20.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9162, 9602, 6902

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9162, 9602, 6902

Auto

16.4 34%

Teleop

17.3 35%

Endgame

15.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119.3pts

Blue projected score54.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.6
Score range: 33–141
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.2Season APEX142.3

23.4Auto16.4

75.3Teleop17.3

20.8Endgame15.1

18Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	22
teleop	58	37
endgame	33	10
foul	5	0
total	112	69

Result

Final score

112 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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