Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.96 – 277.76

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±16.3

9487KRYPTON FRC

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 68.81Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 18.99Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 11.16Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 500 ±11.7

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 187.69Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 61.95Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 28.12Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9487, 1884, 9459

/ 100 compat

Projected

99 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9487, 1884, 9459

Auto

29.7 29%

Teleop

37.2 37%

Endgame

34.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1156, 9458, 9200

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 9458, 9200

Auto

53.1 19%

Teleop

149.1 55%

Endgame

70.5 26%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score99pts

Blue projected score277.8pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -178.8
Score range: 77–300
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 119.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.7Season APEX500

29.7Auto53.1

37.2Teleop149.1

34.7Endgame70.5

26Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	63
teleop	11	107
endgame	18	129
foul	10	0
total	58	299

Result

Final score

58 – 299

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree