Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.65 – 112.45

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175 ±14.5

7033Manna Roosters 7033

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 23.91Rank 17Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 40.53Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 29.21Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.2 ±17

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 46.62Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX -1.77Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 67.6Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7033, 9199, 9486

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7033, 9199, 9486

Auto

24.7 26%

Teleop

49.4 51%

Endgame

21.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11201, 9219, 1860

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11201, 9219, 1860

Auto

35.7 35%

Teleop

48.6 48%

Endgame

17.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.7pts

Blue projected score112.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.8
Score range: 72–134
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175Season APEX192.2

24.7Auto35.7

49.4Teleop48.6

21.9Endgame17.1

72Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	30
teleop	36	38
endgame	52	9
foul	0	0
total	95	77

Result

Final score

95 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree