Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.68 – 156.41

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.9 ±17

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 5.81Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 24.72Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9162ALL MIGHT

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 64.15Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.1 ±16

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 24Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 102.62Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 29.79Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9485, 10019, 9162

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9485, 10019, 9162

Auto

23.0 27%

Teleop

36.8 43%

Endgame

26.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9461, 9484, 9657

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9461, 9484, 9657

Auto

29.7 20%

Teleop

97.8 64%

Endgame

24.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.7pts

Blue projected score156.4pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.7
Score range: 73–178
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 240 vs event baseline 120.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.9Season APEX306.1

23Auto29.7

36.8Teleop97.8

26.7Endgame24.3

48Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	28	109
endgame	21	35
foul	0	15
total	62	178

Result

Final score

62 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree