Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.83 – 100.56

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±18.1

9603MTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 72.4Event APEX 14.63Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 32.6Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9085SESI SENAI MEGA HARPY

Season APEX 102.1Event APEX 84.6Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±18.8

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 26.33Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 30.92Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1772The Brazilian Trail Blazers

Provisional

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 43.31Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9603, 10466, 9085

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9603, 10466, 9085

Auto

14.0 11%

Teleop

77.7 60%

Endgame

38.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1884, 9218, 1772

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.6 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1884, 9218, 1772

Auto

4.8 5%

Teleop

67.2 64%

Endgame

32.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.8pts

Blue projected score100.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.3
Score range: 79–154
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.5Season APEX423.9

14Auto4.8

77.7Teleop67.2

38.2Endgame32.9

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	12
teleop	88	19
endgame	43	23
foul	0	0
total	150	54

Result

Final score

150 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree