Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

27.79 – 119.27

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.2 ±16.6

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 0.58Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 33.58Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -6.37Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.2 ±16.3

10345Sirius

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 19.43Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9487KRYPTON FRC

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 65.58Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 34.26Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9593, 9460, 11188

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9593, 9460, 11188

Auto

10.6 37%

Teleop

8.8 30%

Endgame

9.5 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10345, 9487, 9199

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10345, 9487, 9199

Auto

30.2 24%

Teleop

57.7 46%

Endgame

36.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27.8pts

Blue projected score119.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.5
Score range: 6–141
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.2Season APEX203.2

10.6Auto30.2

8.8Teleop57.7

9.5Endgame36.2

77Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	44	120
endgame	27	20
foul	0	0
total	88	170

Result

Final score

88 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree