Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.67 – 111.97

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.2 ±18

9178Cyber One

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 2.29Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -6.65Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 88.03Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203 ±14.5

9458SESI SENAI JACTECH

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 65.08Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 46.77Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9219Nine Tails

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 0.12Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9178, 9602, 7565

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9178, 9602, 7565

Auto

24.7 32%

Teleop

41.1 53%

Endgame

12.3 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9458, 9169, 9219

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9458, 9169, 9219

Auto

46.7 41%

Teleop

35.6 31%

Endgame

30.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score83.7pts

Blue projected score112pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.3
Score range: 62–134
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.2Season APEX203

24.7Auto46.7

41.1Teleop35.6

12.3Endgame30.9

46Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	37
teleop	63	29
endgame	24	24
foul	0	10
total	103	100

Result

Final score

103 – 100

Prediction missed · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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