Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.89 – 69.16

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±17

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 43.8Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 17.06Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1860Alphabots

Season APEX 97Event APEX 87.03Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.5 ±17

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -3.45Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5800Magic Island Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 42.91Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 29.7Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9657, 9485, 1860

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9657, 9485, 1860

Auto

43.3 32%

Teleop

60.5 45%

Endgame

31.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9593, 5800, 10343

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9593, 5800, 10343

Auto

8.6 13%

Teleop

42.3 65%

Endgame

14.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.9pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.7
Score range: 47–170
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.8Season APEX181.5

43.3Auto8.6

60.5Teleop42.3

31.3Endgame14.1

139Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	20
teleop	21	26
endgame	4	17
foul	0	0
total	48	63

Result

Final score

48 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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