Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.09 – 68.24

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.1 ±17.7

10190UNIMATE - SESI SENAI SC

Season APEX 79.4Event APEX 13.45Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6902STRIKE

Provisional

Season APEX 27.7Event APEX -15.78Rank 48Record 1-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 96.42Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.1 ±18.8

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 45.29Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11188SAR Dynamics

Provisional

Season APEX 37.9Event APEX -4.64Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 27.59Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10190, 6902, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10190, 6902, 9484

Auto

24.5 30%

Teleop

55.0 67%

Endgame

2.2 3%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9169, 11188, 9218

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9169, 11188, 9218

Auto

31.3 44%

Teleop

25.9 36%

Endgame

14.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score68.2pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.9
Score range: 46–116
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.1Season APEX189.1

24.5Auto31.3

55Teleop25.9

2.2Endgame14.2

96Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	109	45
endgame	18	26
foul	15	0
total	166	89

Result

Final score

166 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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