Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.94 – 153.63

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

38 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.4 ±17

9178Cyber One

Provisional

Season APEX 47Event APEX 13.57Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9047TECHMAKER ROBOTICS

Season APEX 105.6Event APEX 87.59Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9459SESI SENAI RPRT HAWKS

Season APEX 60.8Event APEX 31.78Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±15.1

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 86.5Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10019SESI SENAI MINERSKILLS

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 34.29Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9460SESI SENAI STEEL BULLS

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 32.84Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9178, 9047, 9459

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9178, 9047, 9459

Auto

22.9 18%

Teleop

64.0 52%

Endgame

37.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7565, 10019, 9460

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7565, 10019, 9460

Auto

33.2 21%

Teleop

88.7 57%

Endgame

32.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.9pts

Blue projected score153.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.7
Score range: 111–176
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.4Season APEX313.2

22.9Auto33.2

64Teleop88.7

37.1Endgame32.8

96Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	42
teleop	1	68
endgame	13	22
foul	0	0
total	38	132

Result

Final score

38 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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