Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.33 – 131.58

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155 ±16.5

9611SESI SENAI SC CyberRain

Season APEX 52.5Event APEX -3.62Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9602CANINTECH

Provisional

Season APEX 34.9Event APEX -18.08Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 36.03Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.7 ±15.8

9200SESI SENAI STARDUST

Season APEX 157.2Event APEX 44.86Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9486ALPHASTORM FRC

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 35.26Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10298LUVER CONTROL

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 51.46Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9611, 9602, 9199

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9611, 9602, 9199

Auto

14.7 85%

Teleop

10.6 61%

Endgame

-8.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9200, 9486, 10298

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9200, 9486, 10298

Auto

16.1 12%

Teleop

61.7 47%

Endgame

53.3 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score14.3pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.3
Score range: -8–154
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155Season APEX270.7

14.7Auto16.1

10.6Teleop61.7

-8Endgame53.3

90Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	29
teleop	33	31
endgame	18	14
foul	0	0
total	63	74

Result

Final score

63 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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