Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.84 – 297.51

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±18.8

9218Alpha #9218

Provisional

Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 19.98Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 29.55Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9199SESI SENAI SHARKS

Season APEX 67.6Event APEX 42.31Rank 35Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 725.4 ±11.2

1156Under Control

Season APEX 256Event APEX 205.92Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7565SESI SENAI ROBONÁTICOS

Season APEX 185.3Event APEX 81.98Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1884Griffins

Season APEX 284.1Event APEX 9.61Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9218, 10343, 9199

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.8 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9218, 10343, 9199

Auto

13.3 15%

Teleop

52.2 58%

Endgame

23.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1156, 7565, 1884

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1156, 7565, 1884

Auto

49.2 17%

Teleop

178.6 60%

Endgame

67.9 23%

Strengths

· 1156 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.8pts

Blue projected score297.5pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -205.7
Score range: 68–322
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 134.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.2Season APEX725.4

13.3Auto49.2

52.2Teleop178.6

23.9Endgame67.9

57Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	30
teleop	30	213
endgame	3	71
foul	5	0
total	51	314

Result

Final score

51 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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