Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.26 – 74.43

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186.9 ±17.5

9604TUIUTECH

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 20.78Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11201MangTech

Provisional

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 44.22Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9461SESI SENAI MecaChronos

Season APEX 64.1Event APEX 19.26Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.9 ±17

9169AGROTECH

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 42.33Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9593Rhinos

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -4.68Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9657SESI SENAI IPÊV4

Provisional

Season APEX 84Event APEX 36.78Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9604, 11201, 9461

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9604, 11201, 9461

Auto

14.7 19%

Teleop

48.5 62%

Endgame

15.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9169, 9593, 9657

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9169, 9593, 9657

Auto

32.8 45%

Teleop

36.0 49%

Endgame

4.6 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score84.3pts

Blue projected score74.4pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.8
Score range: 52–106
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186.9Season APEX217.9

14.7Auto32.8

48.5Teleop36

15Endgame4.6

53Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	35
teleop	70	35
endgame	22	34
foul	0	0
total	116	104

Result

Final score

116 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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