Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.25 – 59.63

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.3 ±16.6

10343Tera Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 20.23Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 89Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9485HYOBOTS

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 21.02Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.4 ±16.8

7459Taubatexas Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 24.45Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 89

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 5.05Rank 49Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10466Federal Force

Season APEX 77Event APEX 30.13Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10343, 9484, 9485

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10343, 9484, 9485

Auto

21.7 17%

Teleop

75.4 59%

Endgame

29.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7459, 6404, 10466

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7459, 6404, 10466

Auto

13.5 23%

Teleop

33.8 57%

Endgame

12.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.3pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample194alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.6
Score range: 38–152
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.3Season APEX172.4

21.7Auto13.5

75.4Teleop33.8

29.8Endgame12.3

123Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	9
teleop	60	9
endgame	27	1
foul	30	0
total	144	19

Result

Final score

144 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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